Saturday, February 20, 2010

A.J. Ayer on Logical Positivism

From Bryan Magee's excellent BBC TV series The Great Philosophers. Gotta love the brits.


Karl Popper spinning in his grave over the anthropogenic climate change thesis?

The way things are going, the AGW thesis is beginning to take on the patina of pseudoscience.

It explains everything Don't believe that? Click the link and behold.

And the criterion of verisimilitude or scientific acceptability/respectability is apparently mere consistency with data:

The sound of alarm
February 19, 2010

KERRY EMANUEL’S Feb. 15 op-ed “Climate changes are proven fact’’ is more advocacy than assessment. Vague terms such as “consistent with,’’ “probably,’’ and “potentially’’ hardly change this. Certainly climate change is real; it occurs all the time. To claim that the little we’ve seen is larger than any change we “have been able to discern’’ for a thousand years is disingenuous. Panels of the National Academy of Sciences and Congress have concluded that the methods used to claim this cannot be used for more than 400 years, if at all. Even the head of the deservedly maligned Climatic Research Unit acknowledges that the medieval period may well have been warmer than the present.

The claim that everything other than models represents “mere opinion and speculation’’ is also peculiar. Despite their faults, models show that projections of significant warming depend critically on clouds and water vapor, and the physics of these processes can be observationally tested (the normal scientific approach); at this point, the models seem to be failing.

Finally, given a generation of environmental propaganda, a presidential science adviser (John Holdren) who has promoted alarm since the 1970s, and a government that proposes funding levels for climate research about 20 times the levels in 1991, courage seems hardly the appropriate description - at least for scientists supporting such alarm.

Richard S. Lindzen

The writer is Alfred P. Sloan professor of atmospheric sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

BBC 4 on Sir Karl. This is a good discussion. It's RealAudio, and should play in a separate window. Give it time to load.

I suspect that the curmudgeonly Austrian would have had some fun with Mann ET AL.

Saturday SCTV: Stairways to Heaven